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A U.S. Secret Service officer wearing a ballistic vest was struck once in the chest. The officer fired multiple times at Allen, after which the man fell to the ground with minor injuries and was arrested.

Officers recovered a 12-gauge pump-action shotgun and a Rock Island Armory 1911 .38-caliber pistol from Allen, who had traveled by train from the Los Angeles area to Chicago and then to Washington, D.C., arriving at approximately 1 p.m. on April 24. He checked into the Washington Hilton later that day after making a reservation on April 6 for three nights beginning April 24.

Shortly before 8:40 p.m. on April 25, Allen sent a scheduled email to family members and a former employer stating, “I wish I could have said anything earlier, but doing so would have made none of this possible. My sincerest apologies for all the trouble I’ve caused. (scheduled send)-Cole.” He signed the message “Cole ‘coldForce’ ‘Friendly Federal Assassin’ Allen.”

Records show Allen purchased the 12-gauge shotgun on August 17, 2025, and the .38-caliber pistol on October 6, 2023, both in California. The serial numbers match the firearms recovered at the scene.

Checkpoint Response Prevented Access to the Ballroom

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On April 26, Iran offered through Pakistani mediators to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war while postponing nuclear negotiations to a later stage. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg on April 27 to discuss the situation.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on April 27 that Iran can initiate further talks by phone if it wishes. He stated that his national security team is actively discussing Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. forces have maintained patrols and interdiction operations in the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman. The blockade targets vessels attempting to enter or depart Iranian ports and coastal areas. It does not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.

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The Central Command assessed on April 27 that American forces continue to enforce the measures with multiple ships and helicopters deployed.

Iran has said that it will not send a negotiating team to Islamabad for further discussions until the U.S. blockade ends.

On April 26, Iranian officials conveyed “red lines” (including nuclear issues and the Strait of Hormuz) through Pakistani mediators. They proposed a phased approach: first reopen the Strait and end the conflict, then address nuclear matters later.

Iranian officials have described the blockade as a violation of the existing ceasefire. They have set preconditions for any agreement, including the lifting of maritime restrictions, a new legal government over the Strait of Hormuz, war compensation, and guarantees against future U.S. attacks.

Latest Enforcement and Regional Maritime Security

Official maritime summaries as of April 27 show sustained U.S. blockade-enforcement activity in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea. No new verified incidents affected commercial shipping in the core blockade zone during this period.

The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC, a multi-national center that tracks threats to shipping in the Middle East) Update 037 covers March 1 to April 26. It states that merchant vessels continue to report a strong naval presence. Mariners are advised to maintain a prudent standoff distance from naval units.

UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO, the United Kingdom’s official service that issues daily security updates for ships) daily summaries for April 23-26 report no incidents across the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.

The JMIC Update 037 states that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz via the Traffic Separation Scheme remains reduced. Most vessels now route north of the TSS.

No verified attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait have been reported in the last 72 hours. Reports of mines near the TSS persist and GNSS interference remains sporadic.

The command said on April 27 that American forces continue to enforce the measures with multiple ships and helicopters deployed. Recent examples include:

• guided-missile destroyer USS Rafael Peralta (DDG 115) enforcing the blockade against tanker M/T Stream on April 26 after it attempted to sail to an Iranian port.

• an F-35B Lightning II launch from amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli (LHA 7) on April 24 while sailing in the Arabian Sea.

Assessment: The combination of the JMIC Update 037 and UKMTO daily summaries through April 26 provides independent confirmation that the blockade has maintained effective control over commercial traffic attempting to reach Iranian ports.

No breaches or incidents were recorded in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Gulf during the most recent reporting windows. The reduced Strait of Hormuz traffic said in JMIC Update 037 reflects the cumulative impact of enforcement.

The April 26 Iranian phased proposal and Araghchi’s April 27 meeting with Putin represent the most recent diplomatic signals. U.S. officials continue to require a comprehensive proposal addressing nuclear concerns before any adjustment to enforcement.

If JMIC and UKMTO continue to report no incidents in the primary zone through the end of April, the blockade will have operated for more than two weeks without a single verified commercial shipping incident in its core area.

Specific Vessel Interdictions, Separate Incidents On The Somali Coast:

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Three aircraft carrier strike groups (USS Abraham Lincoln, USS Gerald R. Ford, and USS George H.W. Bush) are now operating simultaneously in the region for the first time in decades, supported by over 200 aircraft and 15,000 sailors and Marines.

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President Trump has directed the Navy to destroy any Iranian boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and ordered mine-sweeping operations at tripled capacity. Rules of engagement authorize destruction of Iranian fast boats that threaten shipping or lay mines.

The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has been extended by three weeks, while Iran’s foreign minister conducts talks in Pakistan on regional developments.

The briefing from Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine on April 24 detailed 55 days of operations since major combat began, including the interdiction of the motor vessel Touska and two very large crude carriers in the Indo-Pacific and Indian Oceans.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Islamabad on April 24 for meetings with Pakistani leadership on regional peace and stability.

Blockade Enforcement and Maritime Interdictions

U.S. Central Command stated on April 24 that the blockade against ships entering or exiting Iranian ports continues, with U.S. forces having redirected 34 vessels to date.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said every ship the United States believes meets its criteria (Iranian ships or those traveling to and from Iranian ports) has been turned around. Non-Iranian vessels continue to transit, including overnight passages.

Gen. Dan Caine reported that on April 19 the motor vessel Touska, a 965-foot container ship, ignored multiple warnings over six hours before U.S. Navy forces fired warning shots and then nine inert rounds into its engine room at approximately 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time, disabling the vessel.

U.S. Marines boarded via helicopter fast-rope infiltration and took custody. The ship and crew remain in U.S. custody.

On April 20 and April 22, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command interdicted the motor tanker Tifani and the stateless motor tanker Majestic X, both very large crude carriers transporting sanctioned Iranian oil, at the request of the Department of Justice. Both vessels and their crews are in U.S. custody.

Documented Interdictions (April 19–22, 2026)

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Four would be released immediately and four sentenced to one month in prison, according to his Truth Social post.

Trump credited Iranian leaders for respecting his request as President of the United States and terminating the planned executions.

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The development follows Trump’s April 21 Truth Social appeal urging Iranian leaders to release the women ahead of expected negotiations with U.S. representatives.

Trump described the release as a potential “great start” to talks and asked that the women “do them no harm.”

Iranian judiciary officials rejected the premise of Trump’s claims. The official Mizan Online website stated on April 21 that Trump had been “misled once again by fake news.”

According to Iranian judiciary’s April 21, 2026 statement published on their official outlet Mizan Online, None of the eight women had final verdicts involving the death penalty, adding that some had already been released while others faced charges that would result at most in imprisonment if convictions were upheld.

Background on the Detainees and January 2026 Protests

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U.S. forces continue the naval blockade and remain ready for further operations pending submission of a unified Iranian proposal.

Iranian officials immediately rejected the extension, with the country’s state media reported that Tehran will not recognize the ceasefire announced by the U.S. president and will act according to national interests.

The developments follow an earlier two-week ceasefire agreement reached in April amid ongoing regional tensions.

U.S. Position on Ceasefire Extension and Blockade Maintenance

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Trump, on April 20, said the United States would “knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran” if Iran declined the current deal.

Iranian state-run media Tasnim, on the night of April 19 to 20, reported that “Iranian military forces launched drone strikes toward several US military vessels in the area in response” to the U.S. seizure of the Iranian-flagged cargo vessel M/V Touska.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has issued no corresponding statement on the claim and released no damage or casualty information.

CENTCOM on April 20 announced U.S. forces were patrolling the Arabian Sea near M/V Touska as the vessel’s container cargo was being searched after U.S. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) boarded and seized the ship.

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China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Guo Jiakun, at a regular press conference on April 20, said, “The Strait of Hormuz is a strait for international passage,” expressing concern over the U.S. interception of the Iranian-flagged vessel.

Iranian state television on April 21 reported that no Iranian delegation had traveled to Islamabad for the second round of negotiations. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei on April 20 said Iran had “no plans” for attendance at the next round.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) joint command has announced retaliation, the Foreign Ministry has withdrawn from the current negotiating round, and the Wednesday-evening ceasefire deadline approaches without an announced extension.

Iranian Response: Retaliation Statement, Drone-Strike Claim, and Islamabad Withdrawal

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Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine reported 13 ships turned away since April 13, with zero breaches of the enforcement line.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Admiral Brad Cooper, returning from his second trip to the region in 15 days, reported more than 50,000 service members deployed across 70 locations.

The Treasury Department launched Operation Economic Fury on April 15, threatening secondary sanctions against foreign financial institutions and announcing that the authorization for stranded Iranian oil sales will not be renewed.

Trump said on April 16 that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. The State Department reported that an April 14 trilateral meeting in Washington was the first major high-level engagement between the two governments since 1993.

The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) rated the regional maritime threat level CRITICAL, flagging unverified reports of mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

Hegseth to Iran’s Military Leadership: “Choose Wisely”

Hegseth addressed Iran’s military leadership directly during the April 16 briefing. He named three categories of Iranian infrastructure as potential strike targets, described Iran’s military as unable to rebuild, and called the blockade the less destructive of two options available to the United States.

Hegseth said the United States knows “what military assets you are moving and where you are moving them to” and that Iran is “digging out of bombed out and devastated facilities” with “no defense industry, no ability to replenish your offensive or defensive capabilities.”

“You only have what you have; you know that and we know that,” Hegseth stated. “You can move things around, but you can’t actually rebuild. You can dig out for now, but you can’t reconstitute. But we can; we are reloading with more power than ever before.”

According to Hegseth, U.S. forces are “locked and loaded on your critical dual use infrastructure, on your remaining power generation and on your energy industry.” He added, “We’d rather not have to do it, but we’re ready to go at the command of our President and at the push of a button.”

Hegseth said the blockade is “the polite way that this can go,” stating that Iran’s energy industry “is not destroyed yet” but that if Iran “chooses poorly, then they will have a blockade and bombs dropping on infrastructure, power, and energy.”

He stated the U.S. Navy is enforcing the blockade with “less than 10 percent of America’s Naval power” and that Iran has “zero percent” of its navy remaining. He said Iran’s claim to control the Strait of Hormuz amounts to threatening “to shoot missiles and drones at ships, commercial ships that are lawfully transiting international waters” and that “that is not control, that’s piracy, that’s terrorism.”

Assessment: Hegseth’s public enumeration of specific target categories (dual-use infrastructure, power generation, energy industry) goes beyond general deterrence language used in prior briefings.

Naming the target set publicly while the ceasefire holds positions the threat as a coercive instrument tied to the negotiating timeline rather than an operational directive. The “less than 10 percent” framing communicates both current capability and reserve capacity.

Blockade Operations: 13 Ships Turned Away, Zero Breaches

General Caine walked through the blockade’s operational sequence during the April 16 briefing, using common operating picture graphics from the first four days. He detailed the enforcement scope, intercept procedures, and the extension of interdiction authority beyond CENTCOM’s area of responsibility.

Caine said the blockade “applies to all ships, regardless of nationality, heading into or from Iranian ports” and is “a blockade of Iran’s ports and coastline, not a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.” Enforcement occurs “inside Iran’s territorial seas and in international waters,” Caine stated.

Caine added that beyond CENTCOM’s area, “the Joint Force, through operations and activities in other areas of responsibility, like the Pacific Area of Responsibility under the command of Admiral Paparo, will actively pursue any Iranian flagged vessel or any vessel attempting to provide material support to Iran.”

This includes what Caine described as “Dark Fleet vessels carrying Iranian oil” (illicit ships evading international regulations, sanctions, or insurance requirements).

Caine said of the intercept procedure: as potential blockade runners approach, “a range of intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and tactical assets” move ahead of them. A lead destroyer, supported by air power from the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group, closes on approaching vessels. A junior officer on the bridge transmits the following:

“Do not attempt to breach the blockade. Vessels will be boarded for interdiction and seizure, transiting to or from Iranian ports. Turn around or prepare to be boarded. If you do not comply with this blockade we will use force.”

Caine said this sequence has been “rehearsed multiple times and executed now 13 times since the blockade has begun.” Any ship crossing the blockade line “would result in our sailors executing pre-planned tactics designed to bring the force to that ship, if need be, board the ship and take her over,” including “a series of escalated force options, which could include warning shots and others.”

As of April 16, CENTCOM “has not been required to board any particular ships,” Caine said. CENTCOM posted on April 16 that “U.S. naval vessels are on patrol in the Gulf of Oman as CENTCOM continues to execute a U.S. blockade on ships entering and departing Iranian ports. U.S. forces are present, vigilant, and ready to ensure compliance.”

Assessment: The 13-ship turnaround figure, up from 9 at the 48-hour mark reported on April 15, indicates continued merchant vessel approaches despite the blockade’s public announcement.

The sustained zero-breach rate combined with increasing turnarounds suggests commercial shipping continues testing the enforcement perimeter while compliance holds.

The extension of interdiction authority to U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) for Dark Fleet vessels in the Pacific expands the blockade’s geographic scope beyond the Middle East.

Earlier Blockade Milestones: 36 Hours to Full Halt

Admiral Cooper reported on April 15 that the blockade had been fully implemented, with U.S. forces halting all Iranian maritime trade within 36 hours of its start. CENTCOM tracked compliance through the first 48 hours, reporting a rising number of vessel turnarounds and zero breaches.

Cooper stated, “A blockade of Iranian ports has been fully implemented as U.S. forces maintain maritime superiority in the Middle East.

An estimated 90% of Iran’s economy is fueled by international trade by sea. In less than 36 hours since the blockade was implemented, U.S. forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea.”

During the first 24 hours, zero ships breached the blockade and six merchant vessels complied with U.S. direction to turn around, according to CENTCOM.

By the 48-hour mark, the zero-breach record held and the turnaround count rose to nine. CENTCOM stated on April 15, “During the first 48 hours of the U.S. blockade on ships entering and exiting Iranian ports, no vessels have made it past U.S. forces.”

USS Tripoli (LHA 7), an amphibious assault ship, is operating in the Arabian Sea with 3,500 sailors, embarked Marines, and F-35B stealth fighters. CENTCOM reported that “Tripoli and its 3,500 Sailors and embarked Marines are executing the mission to blockade ships entering and departing Iranian ports.”

Iran had been collecting transit tolls of up to $2 million per vessel through its own Strait of Hormuz restrictions since the start of the conflict, according to CENTCOM. The U.S. blockade now targets the revenue source those tolls were protecting.

Assessment: The progression from 6 vessels turned around at 24 hours, to 9 at 48 hours, to 13 as of April 16 shows a sustained rate of approximately 3 to 4 new approaches per day despite the blockade’s public announcement.

The zero-breach record across all 13 encounters, without a single boarding, indicates that the combination of naval presence, radio warnings, and visible air power has been sufficient to compel compliance without physical enforcement.

Operation Economic Fury: Treasury Moves on Secondary Sanctions

The U.S. Department of the Treasury on April 15 detailed the economic component of the pressure campaign against Iran, threatening secondary sanctions against foreign banks and ending the authorization for stranded Iranian oil sales.

The Treasury stated, “Treasury is moving aggressively with Economic Fury, maintaining maximum pressure on Iran. Financial institutions should be on notice that the department is leveraging the full range of available tools and authorities and is prepared to deploy secondary sanctions against foreign financial institutions that continue to support Iran’s activities.”

The Treasury added, “The short-term authorization permitting the sale of Iranian oil already stranded at sea is set to expire in a few days and will not be renewed.”

Hegseth stated at the April 16 briefing that “Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and our friends over at Treasury are launching Operation Economic Fury as well, maximizing economic pressure across the entirety of the government.”

Assessment: The Treasury statement specifies two concrete measures: the threat of secondary sanctions against foreign financial institutions and the expiration without renewal of the authorization for stranded Iranian oil sales.

The secondary sanctions threat targets the financial infrastructure supporting Iran’s remaining trade channels, while the oil authorization expiry removes the last legal mechanism for selling Iranian crude already at sea. Together with the naval blockade, these measures target both the physical movement and financial processing of Iranian trade.

China Denies Weapons Accusation, Cites Tariff Countermeasures

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Trump stated, “Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.”

Trump directed the Navy to interdict every vessel in international waters that has paid a toll to Iran and to destroy mines laid by Iranian forces.

He said, “Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!” Trump added, “the meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not.”

The first direct high-level in-person engagement between the United States and Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution ended without agreement after 21 continuous hours of negotiations at the Islamabad Serena Hotel in Pakistan.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who led a U.S. delegation of approximately 300 members, said the American side had presented “a very simple proposal, a method of understanding that is our final and best offer.”

Iran’s delegation of approximately 70 members was led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, not Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei stated, “the talks did not reach an agreement,” attributing the failure to “unreasonable demands” by the American side.

More than 800 vessels remain trapped in the Persian Gulf with approximately 20,000 civilian seafarers aboard, according to the International Maritime Organization. Iran has been collecting ad-hoc transit tolls of up to $2 million per ship, according to maritime industry source gCaptain.

U.S. Negotiating Position and Nuclear Requirements

The core U.S. demand centered on Iran’s nuclear program. Vance stated, “The simple fact is that we need to see an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon, and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon.”

Washington brought a 15-point framework to the table covering Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, ballistic missile capability, sanctions relief, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Vance added that the U.S. had made its red lines clear and that the proposal represented its “final and best offer.”

The U.S. delegation included Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, Presidential Adviser Jared Kushner, National Security Adviser Andrew Baker, and Asian Affairs Adviser Michael Vance.

Security measures in Islamabad included more than 10,000 police and security personnel, a sealed Red Zone, and public holidays announced for April 9 and 10.

Assessment: The framing of the U.S. proposal as a “final and best offer” leaves limited diplomatic space for further negotiation within the existing two-week ceasefire window that began April 8.

The 15-point framework’s inclusion of enriched uranium and ballistic missiles alongside Hormuz reopening links military, nuclear, and economic issues into a single package that Iran has publicly rejected as beyond the scope of any single agreement.

U.S. Navy Blockade: Trump’s Post-Talks Order

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Iran halted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after the Israeli strikes on Lebanon, then allowed two vessels through before closing transit again.

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Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi formally accepted the ceasefire but conditioned Strait of Hormuz passage on “coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces.” President Trump said the ceasefire required the “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING” of the strait.

According to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, the strait must reopen “without any limitations, whether in the form of tolls or otherwise.”

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the United States violated three clauses of the ceasefire framework. Vice President JD Vance, who will lead the U.S. delegation at Islamabad talks on April 10, addressed the claims and said they were unfounded.

The U.S. Department of War reported American and Israeli forces struck more than 13,000 targets over 38 days of Operation Epic Fury.

Israel Hits More Than 100 Lebanon Targets, Killing 254

Israel launched its largest coordinated attack on Lebanon since the war began on April 8, hitting more than 100 sites across the country. Lebanon’s civil defense department reported at least 254 people killed and more than 1,100 wounded.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) deployed approximately 50 fighter jets and 160 munitions, according to Lebanese government reporting.

Strikes hit central Beirut without prior warning, including at least five neighborhoods during rush-hour traffic. Lebanon’s Ministry of Health reported the attacks were “unprecedented in number and intensity.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a televised address that Lebanon was not part of the ceasefire with Iran and that Israel would “continue to operate” against Hezbollah. According to Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, the ceasefire mediator, the agreement included Lebanon.

The IDF stated, “In accordance with directives from the political echelon, the IDF has ceased fire in the operation against Iran, and is highly prepared to respond defensively against any violation.

Overnight, the IDF conducted a wide-scale wave of strikes targeting missile launch sites and launchers across Iran, in order to significantly degrade its launching capabilities.”

The statement added, “Simultaneously, in Lebanon, the IDF is continuing to conduct targeted ground operations against Hezbollah. The IDF will continue to operate across all fronts to defend Israel.”

The IRGC said, “We issue a firm warning to the United States, which violates treaties, and to its Zionist ally, its executioner: if the aggression against beloved Lebanon does not cease immediately, we will fulfill our duty and deliver a response.”

Hezbollah reported firing rockets at the kibbutz of Manara in northern Israel early April 9, its first attack since the ceasefire was announced, citing Israeli violations.

Assessment: Netanyahu’s statement that Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire directly contradicts Sharif’s statement that it is. The Western joint statement (10 nations plus Japan) called for ceasefire implementation “including in Lebanon.”

French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with both Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian and Trump, then said the ceasefire must be “fully respected by each of the belligerents, across all areas of confrontation, including in Lebanon.” Ghalibaf cited the Lebanon strikes as one of three U.S. ceasefire violations.

The IRGC’s threat to “deliver a response” if Israeli strikes on Lebanon continue introduces a direct Iranian military dimension to the Lebanon front, separate from Hezbollah’s retaliatory rockets at Manara. Iran’s Hormuz re-closure was also linked to the Lebanon strikes, connecting the two fronts operationally.

Iran Halts Hormuz Tanker Traffic After Lebanon Strikes

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) halted all ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after Israel’s strikes on Lebanon on April 8.

Two bulk carriers, the Greek-owned NJ Earth and the Liberian-flagged Daytona Beach, transited the strait earlier in the day after obtaining permission from Iran. Further passage was then stopped.

Marine Traffic data showed approximately 800 tankers waiting on both sides of the strait, including 426 tankers, 34 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) carriers, and 19 Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) ships.

Leavitt stated, “The immediate priority of the president is the reopening of the strait without any limitations, whether in the form of tolls or otherwise.”

Iran’s published 10-point plan includes a $2 million per-ship transit fee and passage “in coordination with Iran’s armed forces.” No U.S. statement has addressed either provision.

In a separate post, Trump said, “All U.S. Ships, Aircraft, and Military Personnel, with additional Ammunition, Weaponry, and anything else that is appropriate and necessary for the lethal prosecution and destruction of an already substantially degraded Enemy, will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with.”

Trump added, “If for any reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the ’Shootin’ Starts,’ bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before.” According to the same post, “NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS and, the Strait of Hormuz WILL BE OPEN & SAFE.”

Assessment: Two ships transited successfully before the IRGC re-closed the strait, indicating Iran has operational control over passage. The re-closure came in direct response to the Lebanon strikes, linking Hormuz access to the Lebanon front.

Araghchi’s acceptance language (“safe passage… via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces”) contradicts Trump’s “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING” and Leavitt’s “without any limitations.”

Trump’s “REAL AGREEMENT” post and the threat that the “Shootin’ Starts” if terms are not met indicates the U.S. has not withdrawn military assets from the region despite the ceasefire. The 800 vessels waiting on both sides represent a measurable baseline for tracking compliance.

Gulf States Report Post-Ceasefire Iranian Attacks

Iran launched missiles and drones at targets across the UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain on April 8, hours after the ceasefire took effect. Iran stated the launches were in retaliation for a strike on the Lavan Island oil refinery.

The UAE Ministry of Defense stated, “The blatant Iranian attacks since the ceasefire took effect have reached 17 ballistic missiles and 35 drones, and the air defenses have successfully dealt with them.”

According to a detailed follow-up, “UAE air defenses have engaged a total of 537 ballistic missiles, 26 cruise missiles, and 2,256 UAV’s” since the onset of Iranian attacks.

The April 8 attacks “resulted in injuries to 3 individuals, all of whom sustained minor injuries, bringing the total number of injuries to 224, involving individuals of various nationalities.”

The statement read: “no martyrs or fatalities have been reported in the past hours.” Since the onset of attacks, “the total number of martyrs has reached 2, in addition to the martyrdom of a Moroccan civilian contracted with the Armed Forces.

The total number of civilian fatalities stands at 10, from Pakistani, Nepalese, Bangladeshi, Palestinian, Indian, and Egyptian nationalities.”

The UAE Ministry of Interior said, “Air defense systems are currently dealing with a missile threat. Please remain in a safe place and follow warnings and updates on the official channels.”

Kuwait’s Defense Ministry reported its air defenses intercepted 28 Iranian drones launched since 8 a.m. local time. The statement cited “intense hostile Iranian attacks.” Kuwait’s Interior Ministry said “severe material damage” occurred at Kuwait Petroleum Corporation facilities and energy and water ministry installations in the south of the country.

Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defense reported nine drones were intercepted and destroyed in the hours following the ceasefire. A Saudi pipeline was directly hit by a separate drone. A fire started at Abu Dhabi’s Habshan gas complex.

Qatar’s Ministry of Defense reported seven ballistic missiles and a number of drones targeted the country on April 8, all of which were intercepted. Bahrain also reported interceptions.

Assessment: UAE interception of all 52 April 8 projectiles (17 ballistic missiles, 35 drones) maintains near-total engagement success across 2,819 cumulative Iranian projectiles (537 ballistic, 26 cruise, 2,256 unmanned aerial vehicles).

Kuwait cited “severe material damage” at oil facilities, the first such infrastructure damage to Kuwait since the Mina Al-Ahmadi strikes of March 19.

Iran’s stated justification (retaliation for Lavan refinery) creates a claim-counterclaim cycle: the IDF denied hitting Lavan, and no party has attributed the refinery attack.

Lavan Refinery Attacked After Ceasefire, Attribution Disputed

Iran’s National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company reported that the Lavan Island oil refinery was attacked at approximately 10 a.m. local time on April 8, after the ceasefire took effect.

The company called it “a cowardly attack by enemies.” No casualties were reported; employees had been evacuated. No party has taken responsibility for the Lavan refinery strike. The IDF released a statement denying involvement. Iran’s subsequent launches against Gulf states were framed as retaliation for the refinery attack.

Assessment: The Lavan refinery strike occurred after both the U.S. and Israel stated they had ceased fire against Iran, and the IDF denied involvement. No attribution has been established.

Iran used the attack as stated justification for launching 17 ballistic missiles and 35 drones at the UAE and 28 drones at Kuwait. Whether Iranian military commanders received or acted on ceasefire orders before these launches has not been addressed by any party.

Iran Cites Three U.S. Violations, Vance Responds

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Trump stated that the United States now has “Complete and Total Regime Change” in Iran, claiming Iran’s government has already changed and “different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail.”

Hours before the deadline, Iran submitted a 10-clause counter-proposal through Pakistan for the permanent termination of the war, rejecting the concept of a temporary ceasefire, according to Iran’s Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA).

The proposal includes ending hostilities in the region, establishing a protocol for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, reconstruction, and the lifting of sanctions.

Vice President JD Vance said the United States expects an Iranian response by 8 PM ET and that U.S. forces struck military targets on Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf. The White House listed four specific war objectives on April 1; none referenced changing Iran’s government.

Separately, three gunmen attacked the Israeli consulate in Istanbul on Tuesday; one attacker was killed and two were captured by Turkish security forces. Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a separate statement on the same day on the storming of Al-Aqsa Mosque by an Israeli minister.

Trump’s Deadline and Government Change Statement

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More Reports On Space

The mission launched April 1 at 6:35 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) from Launch Complex 39B at Kennedy Space Center aboard the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and Orion capsule, marking the first crewed mission beyond low Earth orbit since Apollo 17 in December 1972.

The 10-day mission will carry the crew to approximately 280,000 miles (450,000 km) from Earth, surpassing Apollo 13’s record of 248,655 miles (400,171 km) as the farthest human spaceflight in history, according to NASA.

The crew consists of Commander Reid Wiseman, Pilot Victor Glover, and Mission Specialists Christina Koch and Jeremy Hansen of the Canadian Space Agency (CSA).

The mission is proceeding nominally as of April 2 flight updates published by NASA. All four solar array wings deployed successfully after launch and proximity operations (controlled maneuvering near another object in space) between the Orion and SLS upper stage were completed as planned.

Mission control polled the crew and Houston teams “go” for the trans-lunar injection burn (the engine firing that sends the spacecraft from Earth orbit toward the Moon) on April 2 at 7:49 p.m. EDT, following completion of the perigee raise burn, a 43-second engine maneuver that raised the spacecraft’s lowest orbital altitude, NASA stated.

Mission Objectives: What Artemis II Is Designed to Prove

Artemis II is not a lunar landing, and the crew will not touch the Moon’s surface. The mission’s purpose is to verify that the Orion capsule can safely carry a human crew to the Moon and return them to Earth, providing the data NASA needs to decide whether Artemis III, the actual crewed landing mission targeted for 2027, can proceed.

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The 10-day flight profile tests Orion’s systems under conditions that cannot be replicated in Earth orbit or on the ground. Specific objectives include measuring radiation exposure the crew receives during deep-space transit beyond the protection of Earth’s magnetic field, and verifying that life support systems (oxygen, carbon dioxide removal, temperature, and water) perform at lunar distances where resupply or quick return is not possible.

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The 60-day War Powers Resolution statutory clock, with no congressional authorization granted, expires around April 28–29, 2026.

On April 2, President Trump stated via Truth Social that Iran’s new leadership had requested a ceasefire. He conditioned any consideration on the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping, adding that until then strikes would continue.

Between those dates the administration has signaled that the campaign will intensify: Trump told the nation on April 1 that strikes will continue “extremely hard over the next two to three weeks” and that every Iranian electric generating plant will be hit “probably simultaneously” if no deal is reached.

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The military picture through week five shows continued degradation of Iranian capabilities. CENTCOM reported that U.S. forces have struck more than 12,300 targets inside Iran as of early April 2026.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine reported on March 31 that Iran has suffered significant naval losses with more than 150 vessels damaged or destroyed, that Iranian missile and drone launches have fallen to the lowest level since operations began, and that Iran’s defense industrial base is “nearly completely destroyed.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on March 31 that objectives are achievable in “weeks, not months.” Negotiations through presidential envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Vice President JD Vance, and Secretary Rubio are what Hegseth assessed as “very real” and “gaining strength.”

Iran’s Foreign Ministry responded on April 2 that Trump’s ceasefire characterization is “false and baseless,” with Foreign Minister Araghchi stating via IRNA that Iranian forces are “prepared with their fingers on the trigger” and that “the trust level is at zero.”

Trump’s April 1 Address: Objectives Nearing Completion, Strikes to Continue

Trump told the nation in a prime-time address on April 1 that Operation Epic Fury has achieved its core military objectives.

He said: “Tonight, Iran’s Navy is gone. Their air force is in ruins. Their leaders, most of them, terrorist regime they led, are now dead. Their command and control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is being decimated as we speak. Their ability to launch missiles and drones is dramatically curtailed.”

He added: “These core strategic objectives are nearing completion.”

According to the address, 13 U.S. service members killed in the operation gave their lives “to prevent our children from ever having to face a nuclear Iran.”

Trump told reporters he traveled to Dover Air Force Base twice during the conflict. He cited each family’s message: “Please sir, please finish the job.”

Trump stated that “regime change was not our goal” but that it “has occurred because of all of their original leaders’ death,” adding that the new leadership “should be wiser.”

On the strike timeline, he told reporters strikes will continue “extremely hard over the next two to three weeks.”

On the power grid, Trump stated: “If there is no deal, we are going to hit each and every one of their electric generating plants very hard and probably simultaneously.”

He addressed oil infrastructure separately, adding that he has refrained from targeting it to give Iran “even a small chance of survival or rebuilding” but that “we could hit it and it would be gone.”

Trump cited Operation Midnight Hammer, which he said he ordered in June against Iranian nuclear facilities, as the prior operation that preceded Epic Fury after diplomacy failed. He assessed that Iran subsequently sought to rebuild its nuclear program at a different location.

On April 2, Trump posted on Truth Social a video of a bridge destroyed near Tehran, writing that “the biggest bridge in Iran comes tumbling down, never to be used again.” In a separate post, he wrote: “IT IS TIME FOR IRAN TO MAKE A DEAL BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE, AND THERE IS NOTHING LEFT OF WHAT STILL COULD BECOME A GREAT COUNTRY.”

Iran’s Foreign Ministry responded after the address that Trump’s characterization of a ceasefire was “false and baseless.” Foreign Minister Araghchi stated via IRNA on April 2 that Iranian armed forces are “prepared with their fingers on the trigger” and that “the trust level is at zero.”

Assessment: Trump’s public framing of the power grid threat as conditional on a deal, combined with the April 6 pause deadline, gives Tehran a narrowing decision window.

The acknowledgment of the leadership transition in Tehran, paired with characterization of the new government as potentially more reasonable, introduces a negotiating signal directed at Mojtaba Khamenei.

The address functions as both a status report and a compellence signal: continued strikes are presented as the default, a deal as the off-ramp.

Campaign Scope: More Than 12,300 Sites Struck Through Week Five, Iran’s Defense Capacity:

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Hours later, Pezeshkian posted an open letter addressed to the American people on his official social media account that reached 1.7 million views.

He wrote that Iran “has never, in its modern history, chosen the path of aggression, expansion, colonialism, or domination” and that “continuing along the path of confrontation is more costly and futile than ever before.”

The disputed exchange and Pezeshkian’s letter emerged as coalition operations have expanded across three continents.

The United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Australia, and France have each reported active military deployments or engagements. Canada and Germany have stated they will not participate.

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NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte cited commitments from more than 30 countries to ensure sea lane access.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Strait of Hormuz closure represents “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” Governments from the Philippines to New Zealand have imposed emergency energy measures.

Legal Status of U.S. Operations: Is the United States Officially at War?

The United States has not formally issued a declaration of war against Iran. The Trump administration is conducting operations under Article II Commander-in-Chief authority.

The White House submitted a War Powers Resolution notification to Congress on March 2, 2026, initiating the 60-day clock under the War Powers Resolution. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated the administration had “overcomplied with the law.”

Congress has not passed an Authorization for Use of Military Force for Iran operations. On March 4, the Senate rejected a War Powers Resolution that would have required the administration to seek congressional consent, 47 votes in favor to 53 against. On March 5, the House rejected a similar resolution, 212 votes in favor to 219 against.

No existing AUMF (including the 2001 or 2002 authorizations that governed post-9/11 operations) has been cited by the administration as operative legal authority for Operation Epic Fury, according to Lawfare.

Administration officials have used “military operation” exclusively in official statements and press briefings, not “war,” as a legal or documentary designation. The War Powers Resolution 60-day clock, filed approximately March 2, expires approximately May 1, 2026.

The current U.S. military alert level (DEFCON) is classified and not publicly released by the government. The most recent DEFCON change on the public record was September 11, 2001.

Assessment: The conflict meets the practical definition of war: the president ordered armed forces into sustained combat operations against a foreign state, with casualties reported on multiple sides.

It does not meet the constitutional definition: Congress has not issued a war declaration and rejected two legislative measures that would have imposed oversight.

The operative legal deadline is approximately May 1, 2026, when the War Powers Resolution clock expires. Congressional action or inaction by that date is the next formal legal threshold for the administration’s authority to continue operations.

Ceasefire Dispute: Competing Statements

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Major General Brandon Tegtmeier and the 82nd Airborne Division’s full headquarters staff have been ordered to the region to establish forward command and control for potential joint forcible-entry missions.

President Donald Trump declared on March 30 that the United States would “completely obliterate” Iran’s power plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island if the strait is not reopened and a deal is not reached by April 6 at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

Iranian ballistic missiles entered Turkish airspace four times between March 4 and March 30, with NATO air and missile defense assets intercepting each.

Turkey’s Ministry of Defense confirmed the fourth intercept on March 30 and protested each incident through diplomatic channels. Iran denied authorizing the launches and requested joint investigations with Ankara after each incident.

NATO deployed an additional Patriot air defense battery in southern Turkey on March 18. No casualties or damage resulted from any of the four intercepts.

Yemen’s Houthi forces fired ballistic and cruise missiles at Israel on March 28 in the group’s first attacks since the war began on February 28, opening a third active front alongside direct Iranian strikes and Hezbollah operations in Lebanon.

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) stated it intercepted all incoming projectiles. Houthi attacks continued through March 30, with drones intercepted over Israeli airspace on the third consecutive day.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed on March 30 that Iran’s heavy water production plant at Khondab, near Arak, has sustained severe damage from strikes on March 27 and is no longer operational.

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The IAEA based its assessment on independent satellite imagery analysis and stated the facility contains no declared nuclear material.

Iran is operating a yuan-based toll system at the Strait of Hormuz, permitting select vessels from China, India, Russia, Iraq, and Pakistan to transit in exchange for fees paid through Kunlun Bank.

Total strait transits between March 1 and 25 numbered 142, compared to 2,652 during the same period in 2025, a 94 percent collapse, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) described the Hormuz closure as the largest oil supply disruption in history and authorized a record release of 400 million barrels from member state reserves.

Houthi Forces Strike Israel Three Days Running; Bab al-Mandeb Closure Under Consideration

Brigadier General Yahya Saree, the Houthi military spokesperson, announced on Al Masirah television on March 28 that Houthi forces had fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at what he described as “sensitive Israeli military sites” in southern Israel.

Saree called the launch the group’s “first military operation” in support of Iran since the conflict began.

The IDF stated it identified “the launch of a missile from Yemen towards Israel” and that aerial defenses intercepted the threat. The IDF reported intercepting one ballistic missile and one cruise missile on March 28, and shooting down a drone over the southern city of Eilat the same evening.

A second Houthi attack followed within 24 hours, involving cruise missiles and drones, according to Saree. On March 30, Israel intercepted additional Houthi drones, extending the attacks to three consecutive days.

Saree stated that strikes “will continue until the declared objectives are achieved, as stated in the previous statement by the armed forces, and until the aggression against all fronts of the resistance ceases.”

Mohammed Mansour, the Houthis’ deputy information minister, told local media on March 29 that “closing the Bab al-Mandeb strait is among our options.”

The Bab al-Mandeb is an 18-mile-wide (29-kilometer) chokepoint at the southern entrance to the Red Sea. Approximately 12 percent of global trade by value transits the strait annually, including an estimated 4.8 million barrels of oil per day, according to maritime industry data.

Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), and CMA CGM Group are maintaining Cape of Good Hope diversions, which add 10 to 14 days and approximately $1 million per round-trip Asia-Europe voyage, according to shipping industry reporting.

Assessment: The Houthi entry creates a second maritime threat axis. If Houthi forces close Bab al-Mandeb while Iran controls Hormuz transit, two of the five global oil chokepoints would be restricted simultaneously.

The specific indicator to monitor is whether Houthi forces resume attacks on commercial shipping, which they suspended after the February 2026 Yemen ceasefire. Mansour’s public statement that closure “is among our options” places the decision within stated intent rather than speculation.

IAEA Confirms Khondab Heavy Water Plant No Longer Operational After March 27 Strike

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The amphibious assault ship brings F-35B strike fighters, tiltrotor aircraft, and ground combat Marines into the theater.

The arrival coincided with the departure of three guided-missile destroyers from the George H.W. Bush Carrier Strike Group (CSG) 10 from East Coast ports, positioning a second carrier strike group to enter the theater within days.

CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper reported on March 25 that coalition forces had struck more than 10,000 Iranian targets and damaged or destroyed over two-thirds of Iran’s missile, drone, and naval production facilities since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28.

USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) has operated as the sole carrier in the CENTCOM area since USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) diverted to Greece for emergency repairs after an onboard fire on March 12.

The Ford completed repairs at Souda Bay, Crete, between March 23 and 26 and arrived in Split, Croatia, on March 28, according to the U.S. Sixth Fleet.

A second amphibious ready group led by USS Boxer (LHD-4) with the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) and approximately 2,500 Marines departed San Diego three weeks ahead of schedule on March 20 and was transiting the Pacific as of March 23, according to the U.S. Naval Institute fleet tracker.

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Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group Arrives in CENTCOM

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The rejection came as a Pentagon spokesperson confirmed elements of the 82nd Airborne Division, approximately 2,000 paratroopers, are deploying to the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility.

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar confirmed on March 26 that Pakistan is serving as the primary intermediary between Washington and Tehran, conveying messages between the parties.

Dar noted that “the US has presented 15 points which Iran is currently reviewing,” with Turkey and Egypt providing supporting roles.

CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper reported in a March 25 video update that U.S. forces have struck more than 10,000 Iranian targets since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, nearly doubling the 5,500 figure reported on March 11.

Cooper added that 92 percent of Iran’s largest naval vessels have been destroyed and over two-thirds of its missile, drone, and naval production facilities have been damaged or degraded.

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Iran’s Ceasefire Counterproposal and Hormuz Sovereignty Demand

The five counter-demands issued through Press TV, attributed to an anonymous senior Iranian official, include a halt to the killing of Iranian officials, safeguards against future attacks on Iran, reparations for the war, an end to hostilities across all fronts including allied groups, and Iran’s “exercise of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.”

The Hormuz demand carried specific language: “Iran’s exercise of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz is and will remain Iran’s natural and legal right, and it constitutes a guarantee for the implementation of the other party’s commitments, and must be recognized.”

The official added that “Iran will end the war when it decides to do so and when its own conditions are met.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that no direct negotiations with the United States are planned or underway. Iran characterized the U.S. 15-point plan as “maximalist” and “unreasonable.”

On March 26, President Trump announced a 10-day extension of the pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, pushing the deadline to April 6 at 8 p.m. Eastern Time. Trump stated Iran had requested the extension and that Tehran had allowed several oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, which he characterized as a signal of engagement.

Assessment: The Hormuz sovereignty demand goes beyond standard ceasefire terms. Iran is attempting to convert a military conflict into a permanent legal concession over the waterway that handles roughly 20 percent of global oil transit, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The demand functions as both a negotiating anchor and a signal that Tehran views the current conflict as leverage for long-term strategic gains, not merely a war to be ended.

The April 6 deadline creates a defined window for diplomatic progress. Iran’s request for the extension, despite publicly rejecting the 15-point plan, indicates Tehran is maintaining a back channel even as it postures publicly.

The reparations demand is also novel and has no precedent in recent Middle Eastern ceasefire negotiations.

Pakistan’s Lead Mediation Role

Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar confirmed Pakistan’s mediation role in a statement on March 26. “Pakistan is playing a crucial mediatory role by conveying messages between the parties,” Dar stated.

He described the effort as dismissing “unnecessary media speculation” about the status of talks and added that “negotiations and diplomacy are the only paths to ensure lasting peace.”

Dar specified that Turkey and Egypt, along with other states, are providing “full support” in a supporting capacity. This is the first public, named confirmation that indirect U.S.-Iran talks are underway through a specific intermediary.

Assessment: Pakistan’s role as lead mediator rather than Egypt shifts the diplomatic dynamic. Islamabad maintains working relationships with both Tehran and Washington, and Pakistan’s nuclear-armed status gives it a different weight at the table than Cairo.

The fact that Dar made a public statement suggests Pakistan wants credit for the mediation effort, which may indicate the channel is producing enough progress to be worth claiming.

82nd Airborne Deployment and Kharg Island as Possible Objective

A Pentagon spokesperson confirmed on March 25 that elements of the 82nd Airborne Division headquarters, division enablers, and the 1st Brigade Combat Team (BCT) are deploying to the CENTCOM area of responsibility.

The deployment involves approximately 2,000 paratroopers drawn from the Immediate Response Force (IRF), a quick-reaction element of the division’s 3,000-soldier ready brigade with an 18-hour deployment capability, according to defense officials.

The force comprises two battalions of approximately 800 soldiers each, according to defense officials, plus division commander Major General Brandon Tegtmeier and supporting staff. The deployment follows earlier reinforcements including the USS Boxer and the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU, a ship-based Marine force).

Alex Plitsas, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, assessed the force size and noted that the deployment “is not sufficient for a major invasion nor to hold a single city,” adding that it “says limited/targeted ops only.”

Plitsas identified two possible objectives consistent with a limited-force deployment: supporting operations to open the Strait of Hormuz and a potential seizure of Kharg Island, a Persian Gulf facility that handles 90 percent of Iranian oil exports.

Assessment: The 82nd Airborne’s IRF has previously deployed as a rapid-response force for contingency operations, including the 2022 deployment to Europe during the Ukraine crisis and the 2021 Afghanistan embassy evacuation.

The deployed force cannot hold a city, as Plitsas noted, but it could execute a seizure-and-hold operation on an island the size of Kharg. The timing, within 24 hours of Iran’s ceasefire rejection, positions the deployment as either a pressure tool or preparation for escalation if diplomacy fails.

A U.S. Air Force B-52H Stratofortress bomber taxis for takeoff in support of Operation Epic Fury, March 2, 2026. (U.S. Air Force / CENTCOM Public Affairs)

CENTCOM Reports 10,000 Targets Struck, Naval Fleet 92 Percent Destroyed

Admiral Cooper declared on March 25 that “we hit the 10,000th Iranian target just hours ago,” adding that “if you combine what we’ve accomplished with the success of our Israeli ally, together we have struck thousands more.”

The 10,000 figure represents a near doubling from the 5,500 targets reported on March 11, a progression of approximately 320 targets per day.

Cooper reported that 92 percent of Iran’s largest naval vessels have been destroyed. “They’re not sailing, and my operational assessment is that they’ve now lost the ability to meaningfully project naval power,” Cooper assessed.

He added that over two-thirds of Iran’s missile, drone, and naval production facilities have been damaged or destroyed, and that drone and missile launch rates have dropped more than 90 percent from their peak, according to CENTCOM operational data.

The CENTCOM commander noted that B-52 bombers are executing strikes carrying up to 70,000 pounds (approximately 31,750 kilograms) of munitions per mission, with more than 10,000 combat flights completed.

Cooper confirmed that more than 50,000 American service members are deployed for Operation Epic Fury and added: “We’re not done yet. We are on a path to completely eliminate Iran’s wider military manufacturing apparatus.”

In a separate development on March 26, Israel confirmed it killed IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri in an airstrike on Bandar Abbas. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated Tangsiri was “directly responsible” for mining and blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The strike also killed IRGC Navy intelligence head Behnam Rezaei, according to IDF confirmation.

Assessment: The March 25 figures represent a shift from the March 11 snapshot. The 92 percent naval destruction figure, if accurate, means Iran has lost its conventional naval deterrent in the Persian Gulf. The 90 percent reduction in launch rates indicates that Iranian missile and drone production is being degraded faster than Tehran can replenish.

The killing of Tangsiri removes the operational commander most directly associated with Iran’s Hormuz blockade strategy, compounding the 92 percent naval vessel losses reported by CENTCOM.

Cooper’s reported 50,000+ service members deployed to the region represents the largest U.S. force concentration in the Middle East during the current operation, according to CENTCOM figures.

An EA-18G Growler launches from USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) in support of Operation Epic Fury, March 6, 2026. (U.S. Navy / CENTCOM Public Affairs)

Iran’s Cluster Warhead Campaign Against Israel

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The Incident

At approximately 2:00 PM Eastern Time on March 12, a KC-135 Stratotanker went down near Turaibil in western Iraq, close to the Iraqi-Jordanian border. CENTCOM’s initial statement confirmed two aircraft were involved: one crashed, and the second landed safely.

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CENTCOM initially confirmed four of six crew members deceased on March 13, with rescue efforts continuing for the remaining two. A subsequent update confirmed all six crew members were dead.

The identities of the service members are being withheld pending the standard 24-hour next-of-kin notification period.

The Second Aircraft

The surviving KC-135, identified through flight tracking data as a KC-135R bearing serial number 63-8017, declared an in-flight emergency and landed at Ben Gurion Airport in Israel on the evening of March 12. Photographs circulated on social media showed the aircraft missing a significant portion of its vertical stabilizer.

The aircraft is assigned to the 314th Air Refueling Squadron, 940th Air Refueling Wing, an Air Force Reserve Command unit based at Beale Air Force Base, California. It has not been confirmed whether the crashed aircraft belonged to the same unit.

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The U.S. military responded by destroying 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the strait on March 10, according to CENTCOM.

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The mine-laying campaign comes as Iranian retaliatory strikes have forced the shutdown of major energy infrastructure across the Gulf: Bahrain’s Bapco Sitra refinery (405,000 barrels per day) declared force majeure on March 9 after a drone attack, the UAE’s Ruwais refinery (922,000 bpd) was shut on March 10 following a drone-caused fire, and Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery (550,000 bpd) and Qatar’s LNG production facilities were halted earlier in the conflict.

President Trump responded to the mine-laying reports with a warning that the U.S. would hit Iran “twenty times harder” and that “death, fire, and fury will reign upon them” if Iran blocked oil flow through the strait.

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In the same period, Trump gave conflicting signals, telling reporters the war was “very complete, pretty much” and ending “very soon,” while separately telling House Republicans “we haven’t won enough.”

The IRGC rejected Trump’s timeline, with spokesperson Ali Mohammad Naini stating “it is we who will determine the end of the war.”

The Pentagon disclosed on March 10 that approximately 140 U.S. service members have been wounded since the start of Operation Epic Fury, with eight severely injured and 108 having returned to duty. This figure is significantly higher than the 18 previously reported.

Iran Lays Mines in Strait of Hormuz; CENTCOM Destroys 16 Minelayers

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The 42,000-ton converted container vessel is now on fire, according to Cooper. “U.S. forces aren’t holding back on the mission to sink the entire Iranian Navy,”

Cooper stated during a press conference at CENTCOM headquarters. “Today, an Iranian drone carrier, roughly the size of a WWII aircraft carrier, was struck and is now on fire.”

The strike comes on Day 6 of Operation Epic Fury, which began February 28 with a coordinated U.S.-Israeli campaign targeting Iran’s military infrastructure, nuclear-related sites, and naval forces. Israel’s parallel operation, designated Roaring Lion, has struck over 2,500 targets with more than 6,000 weapons.

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In the last 72 hours alone, American bomber crews hit nearly 200 targets deep inside Iran, including positions around Tehran, with B-2 Spirit stealth bombers dropping dozens of 2,000-pound penetrator munitions on hardened ballistic missile launchers.

The naval campaign has widened. Cooper reported over 30 Iranian warships sunk or destroyed as of March 5, up from 20 confirmed on March 3 and the initial 9 announced by President Trump on March 1.

All 11 Iranian warships stationed east of the Strait of Hormuz were destroyed within the first 48 hours, according to CENTCOM. Iranian ballistic missile launches have fallen 86% from opening-day levels, and one-way attack drone launches have dropped 73%, according to Joint Chiefs Chairman Air Force General Dan Caine.

Casualties have increased on all sides. Six U.S. service members have been killed in action, all at the Shuaiba port facility in Kuwait during an Iranian drone strike. Iran’s semiofficial Tasnim news agency reported 1,230 killed as of March 5, up from the Iranian Red Crescent’s count of 787 on March 4.

Iranian retaliation under Operation True Promise IV has launched approximately 420 missiles across nine countries, killing civilians in Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, and striking U.S. military installations across the Gulf.

Global Threat Assessment

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Six U.S. service members are now confirmed killed in action. Iran’s entire Gulf of Oman naval presence has been destroyed. The State Department has ordered U.S. citizens to “Depart Now” from 14 countries.

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Iran has fired 165 ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles, and 541 drones at Gulf states, according to the UAE Ministry of Defense. Most were intercepted, but 21 drones hit civilian targets, killing three migrant workers in the UAE.

On March 2, Qatar shot down two Iranian Su-24s, intercepted seven ballistic missiles, and intercepted five drones. On March 3, the IDF struck Iranian communications and propaganda centers in Tehran.

A bipartisan Senate war powers resolution with 13 co-sponsors is expected to reach a vote as early as March 3, though Trump would veto.

Day 4 Operational Snapshot

• U.S. KIA: 6 (+ 4 seriously wounded). Three F-15Es lost to non-hostile causes under investigation.

• Targets struck: 1,000+ in first 24 hours. B-1 deep penetration strikes ongoing.

• Iranian navy: All 11 Gulf of Oman warships destroyed. Drone carrier and corvette struck.

• Air superiority: Established over southern Iran by Day 2. Carrier aircraft operating day and night.

• Iranian retaliation: 165 ballistic missiles, 2 cruise missiles, 541 drones fired at Gulf states. 21 drones hit civilian targets. 3 migrant workers killed in UAE.

• Coalition involvement: Qatar (shot down 2 Iranian jets, intercepted missiles/drones), Israel (independent strikes on Tehran), 6 Gulf states issued joint condemnation. NATO: verbal support, no involvement.

• Civilian impact: 14-country “Depart Now” evacuation. ~3,000 flights cancelled. Dubai, Abu Dhabi airports damaged. 22 killed in Pakistan anti-U.S. protests. U.S. Consulate Karachi stormed.

• Leadership: Khamenei confirmed dead March 1. Interim 3-member council formed. Supreme leader selection “within days,” according to FM Araghchi.

• Nuclear status: IAEA reports no nuclear installations hit despite initial White House report stating that nuclear-related facilities would be targeted. IAEA has lost contact with Iranian nuclear authorities. Vehicle activity at Isfahan uranium storage tunnel.

U.S. Strike Campaign Expands to B-1 Deep Penetration and Day-Night Carrier Sorties

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