The Next Era of Nuclear Arms Control: U.S. Advocacy for Multilateral Framework Amid Russian Rejection and China's Rapid Expansion
China’s stockpile expansion, anticipated to surpass 1,000 warheads by 2030, renders bilateral approaches outdated.
WASHINGTON, D.C. — The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) expired on February 5, 2026, removing verifiable limits on U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals for the first time since 1972, with each previously capped at 1,550 deployed warheads and 700 delivery systems.
This development, alongside Russia’s 2023 suspension of implementation and China’s accelerated nuclear buildup from over 200 warheads in 2020 to more than 600 in 2026, has prompted the United States to advocate for a new multilateral arms control structure involving multiple nuclear peers.
Concurrently, Iran has prioritized the restoration of ballistic missile facilities damaged during the June 2025 12-Day War, with reconstruction at sites such as Parchin and Shahroud progressing more rapidly than efforts at nuclear facilities like Natanz and Fordow.
Key Developments in Arms Control Landscape
The treaty’s lapse eliminates constraints on strategic forces, potentially allowing both nations to expand deployments.
Prior to expiration, Russia observed central limits despite ceasing inspections and data exchanges. U.S. evaluations confirm adherence until the 2023 suspension, though breaches in verification protocols occurred.
The agreement, established in 2010 and extended in 2021, supported reductions but omitted tactical weapons, hypersonics, and China’s arsenal.
The U.S. Department of State identified structural shortcomings, recommending a replacement that includes all nuclear actors. China’s stockpile expansion, anticipated to surpass 1,000 warheads by 2030, renders bilateral approaches outdated.
Russian endorsement of this growth further undermines stability. U.S. legislative measures mandate assessments on confronting the dual-peer challenge.
International responses highlight perils. The UN Secretary-General characterized the expiration as a serious juncture, calling for resumed negotiations to avert unrestricted rivalry.
